The question that faces the new Democratic Congress and the very lame duck Presidency is simple and straight forward. Having committed America’s might, her prestige, and her international reputation as a beacon of freedom and democracy what can we do now? Given the situation on the ground in Iraq and in Afghanistan what then is possible? Is there anything that can be salvaged out of a military, political, and diplomatic train wreck?

Iraq is wracked by a sectarian civil war. Avoiding the label does not alter the facts. The Shia and Sunni factions are locked in an implacable struggle for control of the country. The Iraqi government does not have the allegiance of either faction. The Shia are supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran across Iraq’s eastern border. The Sunnis are supported by Syria who shares Iraq’s long Western border. So long as the Administration seeks to isolate these two neighboring powers there is no hope that their support for their respective Iraqi counterparts will be attenuated. A stable, peaceful, and non-authoritarian Iraq is only possible if Teheran and Damascus see that development as being in their own national interest. That can’t happen unless we are engaged with them.

Iraq is divided into three parts; the Shiite south; the Sunni west; and the Kurdish north. Only in Kurdish north is there any semblance of security. It is also the only region in which the ethnic militia is closely allied with the United States. It may be possible to redeploy significant American forces in that region as a garrison from which quick reaction anti-terrorist units may operate in the remainder of Iraq and to provide security while the northern oil fields are rehabilitated. Doing so will require addressing Turkish fears that a semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan will become a safe haven for Kurdish separatists and engaging the Turks in the process of securing the north.

Basra and the southern oil fields has been a British responsibility and, when viewed in comparison with Central and Western Iraq, has been relatively secure. It is also the bottle neck through which Iraqi trade flows. Redeployment of significant forces to provide security for redevelopment of the southern oil fields would be a mission within the capacity of American forces to achieve. Even that would require the active assistance of Jordan, Kuwait, and the Saudis. Pacification of central and western Iraq is a task beyond the capacity of the occupying forces to achieve and will be possible only with the active engagement of Syria and Iran to reign in their respective client factions.

The present course in Iraq and its idealistic objective is simply not attainable yet the President clings closely to the Neo-Con fantasy. Redefinition of the objective and commitment in Iraq; embracing the Art of the Possible would enable the administration to devote its attention and resources to the real front line in the war against terror. And that front line lies on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.