The Ming Report

WHO COULD HAVE IMAGINED?

January 24, 2006 - “Who could have imagined?” That was the Bush response to the September 11th attack on New York and the Pentagon. It was also the excuse for the unreadiness of the Department of Homeland Security to cope with natures attack on New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Nobody could have predicted that the most vulnerable major population center in the United States would be struck by a hurricane of the magnitude of Katrina has been the excuse. When, in the days following the impact of the storm the deficiencies of the FEMA response became apparent many critics of the administration pointed out that some one did predict the storm in an emergency preparedness exercise to meet the simulated problems posed by the fictional Hurricane Pam two years before the real storm hit. Still, the administration argument ran, Hurricane Pam considered only the effects of a category 3 storm and Katrina made landfall as a category 4 hurricane. On September 1 President Bush led the way on ABC’s Good Morning America. “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levies. They did anticipate a serious storm.”

Now it appears that two days before Katrina hit FEMA had prepared a computer presentation for a August 27th 9:00 AM meeting. That presentation, obtained by the Washington Post, accurately predicted that Katrina’s storm surge would overtop the levies, inundate much of the city and destroy nearly 90% of the city’s buildings. It predicted that 60,000 plus personnel would be needed for what it called an incredible search and rescue effort and that millions would be made refugees. Someone in the Federal Government did in fact anticipate the breach of the levies two days before the event. That warning did not reach the State and Local authorities. The military, the only practical source for the required personnel, was not alerted.

On August 29th, the day the storm hit New Orleans at 1:47 AM the White House Situation Room received a 41 page report from the Department of Homeland Security’s National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center. That report was considered so urgent that it was sent by e-mail rather than being printed out and delivered. It predicted flooding and levee failures – especially along Lake Ponchartrain. It was those levees that in fact failed some hours later. It predicted that the damage to the city would reach tens of billions of dollars and take years to prepare. It predicted that failures of telecommunications and power would hamper the search and rescue effort of the fire, police, and emergency workers. Nobody thought that information serious enough to wake the President.

The fact is that the Bush Administration did anticipate the disaster the storm created in Louisiana and Mississippi. The Bush Administration did know what was coming and still did nothing to prepare a response. Who could have imagined?