February 3, 2005 - In language strikingly reminiscent of that which we heard during spring of 2002 the President is ratcheting up the rhetoric in the continuing conflict with Iran over its nuclear program. He hopes for a diplomatic solution, he says, but won’t rule out a military strike. Other administration officials hint that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is a possibility and Rumsfeld says that the US should reactivate its development of a burrowing nuclear bomb to target Iran’s nuclear facilities. One political wag said that President Bush is revising his Iraq policy – substituting an N for the Q.

There is a material difference in the two cases however. Iran does have an active nuclear development program which it refuses to give up. Iran does have intermediate and short range ballistic missiles and has deployed them. Iran does have a well equipped and trained army. Iran makes no secret of its long term support for and influence over the Hezbollah terrorist organization – the genesis of the Iran-Contra scandal where President Reagan swapped arms for Hezbollah hostages held in Lebanon.

Unlike Iraq which is located at the head of the Persian Gulf, Iran controls the mouth of that vital waterway from its position on the north side of the Strait of Hormuz. The Department of Energy calls the Strait the “By far the world's most important oil chokepoint”. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/choke.html Close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and you disrupt 12% of the United States oil supply; 25% of Western Europe’s supply; and two thirds of Japan’s oil. http://www.american.edu/ted/ice/hormuz.htm Close the Strait of Hormuz and you disrupt the supply lines to US and coalitions forces stationed in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf.

Iran has the capacity to close the chokepoint at Hormuz. The sea lane available to tanker traffic and naval forces is only 6 miles wide. Not only does Iran hold the north shore of the Strait, it also has a well positioned island base in the middle of the sea lanes. With a fleet of 4 submarines equipped for mine laying operations; missiles and air forces based on the mainland; and a fleet of Chinese built missile equipped patrol boats Iran has the capacity to close the choke point severely disrupting the world’s economy – at least in the short term.

The argument has been advanced that with 150,000 coalition troops deployed in Iraq and another 14,000 stationed in Afghanistan Iran is caught in the jaws of a vise. That argument ignores the fact that those troops are otherwise occupied and unavailable for combat in Iran. The reality of the geo-political situation is that those troops in Iraq are in a box and Iran owns the lid. Andrew Krepinevich, director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis published a study evaluating the scenario of Iran’s closure of the Hormuz choke point and concluded that the United States would need to rely upon Naval forces to open the Strait and that the Naval force structure was not up to the task. http://tinyurl.com/635at

While President Bush rattles the saber and the Radi-Cons in the Pentagon beat their spears against their shields even Tony Blair is backing away from another military adventure. Our allies understand, if the Bush Administrations policy makers do not, that a preemptive war against Iran will leave the western world economy in dire straits indeed – the Straits of Hormuz.