September 30, 2004 - Just Tuesday the insurgents responded to US air attacks on their stronghold in Fallujah by demonstrating open defiance and their control of Samarra in a show of force in the city’s center. The Big Red One is rolling into Samarra tonight in a brigade strength offensive. Since the hand-over of Iraqi sovereignty to Ayud Allawi at the end of June the city has been one of the no-go zones, off limits to US forces under agreement reached with the Interim Iraqi Government to end last April’s crisis in the Sunni Triangle. This is the largest offensive since the President declared major combat over on May 1, 2003. CNN’s Jane Arraf, embedded with the elements of the First Division is reporting that the US military assesses the enemy strength in Samarra at 2,000 insurgents with 246 foreign jihadi fighters, followers of Abu Musa Al-Zarqawi’s terrorist network.

With just hours to go before the President and Senator Kerry engage in the first of three joint appearances before a national television audience the drive on Samarra marks the possible end of the Bush Administration’s policy of avoiding direct combat and the resulting spike in allied casualties. It comes at the end of one of the bloodiest days in Iraq. Air strikes on Fallujah and car bombs in Baghdad and elsewhere killed American soldiers and Iraqi men, women and children. It marks an escalation and an end to the dithering that has marked American occupation policy for the past five months.

Speaking through the embedded reporter the Army promises that it will retake Samarra and that their will be no stand down at the last minute. It was in April that the Marines made a similar promise to retake Fallujah only to be called off by Washington. It was raw political calculus. No President seeking re-election wants a sharp spike in the body count on his watch. Instead of a spurt in flag draped coffins to punctuate the debate over the continuing war in Iraq the Administration settled for the steady drip of casualties in ones and twos.

With the facts on the ground contrasting sharply with the optimistic declarations of good progress woven into the President’s stump speech and Iraq promising to dominate the evenings signal political event it just seems too pat that the offensive should be launched at this time. One must ask, is this the beginning of the Battle of Samarra or is it jut another engagement in the War President’s battle for votes. If the subject comes up in Miami – a call by the President to support the troops engaged in battle tonight – we will know the answer. Is the Big Red One being sent into a battle for the future of Iraq or is it fighting tonight for votes in November?