The Ming Report by Keith Hays

AROUND THE CORNER

August 5, 2004 - What is around the corner that Mr. Bush tells us that we have turned? Is it the prosperity that Herbert Hoover said was waiting for us? The American public doesn’t seem to think so. In July they stopped spending. Consumer spending looked like it had in September 2001 in the wake of Al Qaeda’s assault on America. We don’t seem all that confident about what may be waiting for us around that corner that Mr. Bush says we have turned.

One thing that is lurking around that corner is winter. In winter the cost of heating our homes replaces the cost of a gallon of gas as the most directly felt consequence of the record price for crude oil. The end of the summer driving season won’t end the belt tightening that the consumer has to do to stretch the paycheck to the end of the week. Our consumer economy moves on oil. When a product moves from a factory in Shanghai to a Wal-Mart in Springfield oil moves it every step of the way. It is just not the price of gasoline to power an SUV that impacts the consumer. The price of diesel fuel to power the ships, trains, and trucks that deliver goods to the store shelves is reflected on the price sticker. The airline industry that barely survived September 2001 with government help is taking a double whammy as consumer dollars flow from ticket purchases to the gas pump and the cost of fuel for their planes soars ever upward. The Federal Reserve is looking around Mr. Bush’s corner and seeing inflation. Look for a boost in interest rates next Tuesday.

Tom Ridge tells us that Al Qaeda is waiting for us around the corner just as it was in September 2001. Pointing to computer files captured last month in Pakistan and crediting the President’s leadership in the war on terror he colored New York, New Jersey, and Washington orange. The files told us that Al Qaeda had conducted detailed surveillance operations on financial institutions and buildings before 911. But then in the August 6, 2001 Presidential Daily Briefing the President was told that the FBI had detected Al Qaeda surveillance operations of Federal Buildings in New York. It looks like the corner we are turning is the same one we came to three years ago.

We have not turned the corner on jobs. There are still fewer jobs available for American workers to fill than there were when the President took office. The “new” jobs pay on the average $9000.00 less than the jobs that have been lost. We have not turned the corner on health care costs. The health insurance premium for a couple with two children has risen 38% since 2001 to a little more than $9000.00 per year. We haven’t turned the corner on unemployment; we have just stopped counting those who haven’t found a job before their unemployment benefits ran out. We haven’t turned the corner in Iraq. Americans soldiers are continuing to die even if they are being joined in the phantom column by increasing numbers of Iraqis enjoying American sponsored sovereignty.

Mr. Bush says we are turning the corner but it looks more and more like we have turned this same corner before. Bin Laden is back from the margins and we seem to be marching resolutely in a circle – as we go around the corner..



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