As each day passes the Bush policy east of Suez looks less and less like an action to root out Al Queda and make the world safe from terrorism and more and more like an imperial war to control the world's supply of petroleum. Iraq and Iran have been linked rhetorically in the Bush Axis of Evil, lumping those two ancient enemies together in the Bush crosshairs. Seizure of the Arabian oil fields is being mooted in the halls of the Pentagon.

The Iraqi campaign appears to be a foregone conclusion. Whether it comes before or after Election Day may well depend on the state of the economy. Central Command is shifting its assets, pulling more and more National Guard and Reserve Units out to be replaced by Regular Army units. US construction units are reportedly on the ground in Kurdish controlled northern Iraq upgrading local airstrips to serve as staging areas and relief landing sites in the coming air war. Strike aircraft are reportedly being assembled at Diego Garcia. The basic planning for an invasion of Iraq is apparently done and the coming campaign has entered its preparatory phase. The Strategic Oil Reserve is being topped off to cushion any disruption in the flow of Aramco oil to Aramco refineries in the United States for 90 days.

The planning seems to be grounded in the proposition that Iran will wait their turn as a domino and that the good folks of the Arabian Peninsula, warned by the discussion of seizing Arabian assets, will remain pliant and quiescent. Macarthur assured Washington that the Chinese would not cross the Yalu for fear that the US would unleash Chang-Kai-Shek, The result was the frigid US retreat from the Chosen Reservoir. History teaches bitter lessons; lessons that are too often ignored by Pentagon planners with tunnel vision.

Turkey is in political turmoil. The Arab Street is full of denunciation of the US as Israel's ally and protector. There is a burgeoning guerilla movement in Saudi Arabia. We see Kuwait as a reliable ally and staging area, but it lies at the end of a narrow and treacherous Persian Gulf with a choke point at the Strait of Hormuz. Iran permitted passage during the Bush Gulf War. Supply went in and oil continued to flow out. Egypt was on board in 1991 contributing both a few troops and passage through the Suez. There is grave question if it can sign up this time.

The danger is that this tail will wag the dog so hard that it beats the poor animal's brains out. The few thousand troops stationed on the Afghanistan Plain can't hold out long against an Iranian counter-invasion to break one leg of the pincer that is being constructed around Teheran while starving the other by closing the Strait.

It won't be a 90 day war and it won't be confined to an American blitzkrieg. It will grow and become a wider conflict. It will require the long term support of the American people and what is left of the American industrial complex. America must decide whether control of Iraqi, Iranian and Arabian oil fields and easy access to the Caspian fields is worth the multi-generational commitment to the task. The thirty year old debts run up to pay for the Vietnamese war were just beginning to be paid off a year ago with a surplus that is gone. It is a debate that must be held and the place to hold it is in the Congress, debating a resolution declaring war at the President's request. It is too important a question, to us; to our children; and to our grandchildren to be left to the Executive branch to decide.